LP tail-hedge scenario lab
See how a concentrated LP, a partial short perpetual, and a modeled downside prediction token respond as price and time change.
Demo fallback — ETH below $2,700 at expiry
Compare the LP's curved downside with a linear partial short and a bounded-cost downside token. The Polymarket line is an analytical mark anchored to the supplied midpoint, not a promise that future bids will exist at that price.
Checking current Polymarket markets…
Strategy in plain English
The perp reacts to every move. The digital can react less near today's price, then accelerate as spot threatens the LP boundary. You give up continuous protection in exchange for bounded premium risk and protection concentrated near a chosen strike.
Scenario inputs
Changes automatically rerun live matching and the server price surface.
Hedge entry cost
$150
750 Down shares
Modeled midpoint mark
$165
22.0¢ quoted midpoint
Executable bid mark
$158
21.0¢ current best bid
Bid-vs-model gap
−$8
2.0¢ current spread
Combined P&L by ETH price
At day 15, with 15 days remaining and $150 modeled fees accrued.
Refreshing the AlphaRange price-surface API…
Scenario lines use modeled marks. Only the current executable card above uses an observed bid; future executable prices require a future order book and may be materially worse.
Scenario table
| Scenario | Price | LP only | Perp P&L | LP + perp | Modeled Down | Digital P&L | LP + digital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep downside | $2,439 | −$1,489 | +$445 | −$1,045 | 67.0¢ | +$353 | −$1,137 |
| Lower LP edge | $2,700 | −$595 | +$238 | −$357 | 38.5¢ | +$139 | −$456 |
| Current spot | $3,000 | +$150 | +$0 | +$150 | 15.8¢ | −$32 | +$118 |
| Upper LP edge | $3,300 | +$382 | −$238 | +$144 | 5.2¢ | −$111 | +$271 |
Model and confidence
- Model
- terminal-digital-v0.1
- Market
- fixture-eth-down-2700-30d
- Confidence
- medium
- Data mode
- fixture
Assumptions
- • The market is a terminal ETH-below-strike contract; touch or barrier rules need a different model.
- • The digital curve is anchored to the current fixture midpoint with a constant log-odds offset.
- • Projected LP fees accrue linearly through the selected elapsed day; actual in-range time may be lower.
- • The perp is a 50% short against the LP's initial ETH amount and excludes funding, liquidation, and trading costs.
- • Only today's best bid is treated as executable; future scenario marks do not assume future order-book depth.
Research preview only. This is scenario modeling, not investment advice or an order-execution service. Binary-market rules, oracle definitions, spread, depth, and expiry must be checked before relying on a hedge.